Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
