Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
